What this card predicts
Viability (percent living cells) as a function of storage time for a given product format under specified storage conditions. Outputs are: months to reach the user-specified viability target (shelf life), viability snapshots at 6/12/24 months, the first-order decay constant, and the half-life. The chart shows the full decay curve with a horizontal dashed line at the target — their intersection is the predicted shelf life.
How the model works
V(t) = V0 · exp(−keff · t)
keff = kbase(format) × faw × fT × ftre × flip × fO₂
First-order viability decay with multiplicative factors. Each factor is normalised so that all are 1.00 at the format's reference storage conditions — when you move away from reference, individual factors rise (accelerate decay) or fall (protect).
Baseline decay rates at format reference conditions
| Format | kbase (1/mo) | Reference | Target shelf |
| Cream | 0.163 | 5 °C, aw 0.995 | 1 mo @ 85% |
| Compressed | 0.0815 | 5 °C, aw 0.99 | 2 mo @ 85% |
| Active Dry | 0.0091 | 25 °C, aw 0.25 | 18 mo @ 85% |
| Instant Dry | 0.0068 | 25 °C, aw 0.20 | 24 mo @ 85% |
The five factors
- faw — water activity. For dry formats:
(aw / aw,default)2.5. Lower aw slows Maillard browning, lipid oxidation, and residual enzymatic activity. Liquid formats are aw-insensitive.
- fT — temperature. Arrhenius-like Q10 = 1.5 for dry formats (Beker & Rapoport 1987), Q10 = 2.5 for liquid (where residual metabolism proceeds). Dropping from 25 °C to 5 °C roughly halves k for dry, quadruples it for liquid.
- ftre — Crowe water-replacement. Trehalose H-bonds substitute for water at membrane phospholipid headgroups during desiccation, preserving bilayer integrity.
exp(−0.08 × (tre% − 10)). Doubling trehalose from 10% to 20% halves k.
- flip — lipid susceptibility. Higher UFA (unsaturated fatty acid) content → more oxidation sites. Small positive slope above 7% lipid.
- fO₂ — headspace oxygen.
1 + 0.25 × O2%. Vacuum or N₂-flushed packaging (O₂ = 0) is the reference; air-packed (O₂ ≈ 21%) collapses shelf life by ~6×.
Workflow
- Pick the format you're shipping. Each preset loads its default aw and tells you what a good reference storage regime looks like.
- Set storage conditions — temperature (ambient 25 °C is typical for dry yeast; refrigerated 5 °C is mandatory for liquid), aw if different from format default, and headspace O₂.
- Set viability target. 85% is the industry-standard commercial spec. Lower (e.g., 70%) gives you a longer predicted shelf; the chart shows you where each threshold falls.
- Set composition. Trehalose is the single largest controllable lever for dry-format shelf life. Lipid is secondary.
- Read the chart and verdict. Shelf-life prediction = the time at which the viability curve crosses the target line.
Why trehalose matters (Crowe water-replacement)
During desiccation, water is removed from membrane phospholipid headgroups. Without a replacement, the membrane packs tighter and transitions from fluid-phase to gel-phase at ambient temperature — causing permeabilisation and cell death. Trehalose's hydroxyl groups substitute for water in hydrogen-bonding with the headgroups, maintaining fluid-phase packing even in the dry state. This is why trehalose-rich yeast (12–20% DCW) survives drying to aw = 0.20 while low-trehalose yeast (4–5%) dies.
You accumulate trehalose by imposing a brief N-limited stationary phase at the end of fed-batch propagation. The Strain Designer panel handles the regime design; the Protein panel shows the protein trade-off (stationary phase reduces protein by 8–25%).
Common pitfalls: (1) Storing compressed or cream yeast at ambient temperature — shelf collapses from weeks to days. (2) Air-packed (non-vacuum) instant dry yeast — lipid oxidation halves shelf life. (3) Moist active dry (aw > 0.30) — Maillard browning and residual metabolism kick in; shelf drops from 18 months to 2.
Cross-links with other tabs
- Medium Calculator → Stability: N% and medium type are displayed for reference. The current model doesn't directly use them in keff, but the Strain Designer's push-to-Medium-Calc workflow does drive them through the N-limitation schedule that governs trehalose accumulation.
- Strain Designer → Stability: the Designer recommends trehalose and lipid targets based on your shelf-life goal. Apply them here to verify the predicted shelf life matches the design target.
- Activity Simulator ↔ Stability: the storage age and storage temperature in Activity are the same variables modelled here. Activity's fviab equals V(t)/V0 from Stability. If a customer reports poor dough performance, use Stability to diagnose whether storage conditions are the cause.
Tip: To reproduce a reference industrial shelf-life spec, set Instant Dry at 25 °C, aw 0.20, trehalose 10%, lipid 7%, O₂ 0%, target 85% — the predicted shelf should land at ~24 months, matching Lesaffre SAF-Instant and AB Mauri Fermipan commercial specs.